Ben Stubenberg

While Port-au-Prince is being swallowed up by gangs per the previous posting, Cap-Haitien in the north, as well as other towns well outside Port-au-Prince, are actually quite calm and relatively safe. It’s really a tale of two cities.

Many if not most UN agencies have moved their offices to Cap-Haitien from Port-au-Prince. Cargo ships are opting to call on this city instead of Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien also has the only international airport in Haiti since Port-au-Prince international airport has closed. (A smaller airport in Jeremy is also being opened to international air traffic for people living in the south so they don’t have to risk taking the dangerous road from Cap-Haitien.) Even Royal Caribbean cruise ships are calling on Labadee just outside Cap-Haitien. In fact, the city, the second largest in Haiti with well-over 500,000 people, is seeing a financial boost, especially in lodging and transportation.

Cap-Haitian’s big downside is overcrowding. The streets are packed with people who have fled Port-au-Prince. Some find relatives to stay with. Others must find shelter near the streets. And that large influx in turn has made the streets dirtier. Nonetheless, the city is thriving–in sharp contrast to Port-au-Prince. Indeed, as I have noted before, Cap-Haitien has been replacing Port-au-Prince as the hub for commerce.

The longer gangs stay in control of Port-au-Prince–and all indications are they will become even more entrenched–the more Cap-Haitien will continue be grow as the de-facto capital of Haiti. The remnants of a temporary central government will probably locate to Cap-Haitien to escape gang takeover of the capital. But it’s hard to believe they will have much if any authority in Okap.

And what a change! While Okap was the capital of Haiti for a brief time shortly after the successful revolution for independence that culminated in the final battle against the French outside Okap in November 1803, Port-au-Prince took over. In the ensuing decades, Port-au-Prince amassed virtually all power over the other cities and departments by centralizing all government functions.

If anything good is coming out of the power shift from Port-au-Prince back to the north due to gang control, it is that municipalities will be more free to collect taxes and take care of their own needs locally. Local authorities will call the shots and be far more efficient. And it is unlikely they will relinquish that new-found power to an appointed group that has now power to enforce its edicts. Of course, raising money is tough when the economy is weak, but at least the prospect of more control flowing downward to cities and towns from what remains of the central government could provide opportunities not possible before.

For now, Cap-Haitien is in the best position to carry out a de-centralized administration of Haiti. Officials from Cap-Haitien and other cities have already been in touch about how to govern themselves without Port-au-Prince. While some form of a central government will emerge and acquire some legitimacy, especially if fair and free elections can be held. In the meantime, it would behoove foreign governments seeking to aid Haiti to look more to Cap-Haitien. That city is poised to lead Haiti and perhaps even become the capital of Haiti once more.

Watch this space for updates!

More specifically, could well-armed gangs defy the local police force of other Caribbean island nations, take control, and rule like capricious, violent mobsters, as they have in Port-au-Prince? And more broadly, does gang success in Haiti’s capital foreshadow what might come beyond the Caribbean region, even the U.S.? Sounds like a stretch at first glance. After all, gangs in Port-au-Prince have become entrenched because Haiti has few law enforcement resources to fight back effectively. Moreover, Haiti, forever tagged as “the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere,” is constantly going through cycles of extreme political instability. If only the alarming developments in Port-au-Prince could be dismissed with the sentiment “can’t happen here.”

But what we are seeing unfold in Port-au-Prince–85% gang control over a city of 3 million people that may well reach 100% by the time you read this post–shows just how effective modern gangs can be. Especially when the city has long been in the throes of social and political polarization, distrust of authority, and breakdown of government services, including police protection. Add in the fact that gangs have a special appeal to large segments of young men who have no jobs, see no future, and desperate for status, power and money. None of this, of course, can hide the reality of gang brutality nor the pain of deep widespread trauma from the daily exposure to death.

As readers of my posts know, I attribute this trend primarily to a concept I call the “Democratization of Destruction.” Essentially, this means smaller groups with limited resources can challenge existing authority through the availability of more and more lethal weapons. The ability of gangs to acquire military grade arms effectively levels the playing field for criminal elements, especially when combined with a disenfranchised segment of the population living in poverty with little hope.

In the past, revolts against the government or taking control of territory would usually manifest in a civil war with the rebels being supplied with arms by outside countries. The current trend differs because the power and opportunity for defiance and control has devolved down to gangsters with high powered assault rifles–financed through drug and human trafficking, extortion, ransom, and possibly corrupt elite business or political figures seeking to benefit. The most visual and alarming expression gang power came when bullets blew through commercial aircraft fuselages and closed down the Port-au-Prince airport. If there was any doubt, those acts showed who has the upper hand.

An island nation with a strong police force along with an army can fight back and keep the gangs in check, if not defeat them outright. But not all island nations have this capability. And that gives criminal entities (and non state groups) a potentially decisive advantage as police take on far greater risks and casualties in shootouts or even full-fledged battles against gangs. Countering gang power becomes even more problematic when the local population affected does not assist law enforcement officers out of fear or distrust. Moreover, as we have seen in Port-au-Prince, police need to confront gangs in their shantytown neighborhoods, thus giving them a defensive advantage. Gangs have recruited or forced children to be lookouts for police as part of an intelligence network to give them advance warning. And, if the police do make progress against the gangs, the gangsters can lay low, confident that no one in the hood will dare reveal their whereabouts.

All this gives gangs the confidence to consolidate gains and expand for money and for ego. None of this is really new in the historical context. Sections of cities in other Caribbean nations and even U.S. cities have at various times come under the control or influence of criminal elements with similar modus operandi. With today’s advanced weapons in the hands of gangs, rooting them out becomes far more problematic.

Two weeks ago in Port-au-Prince, police tried to using drones in an attempt to kill gang leader Jimmy Cherizier, aka Barbecue, to regain the upper hand. But, while the police may have killed some of his gang lieutenants, they failed to take out the boss (despite initial claims of doing so). Apparently, the police did not have the intelligence to properly locate and identify him.

In response, Cherizier bragged about his survival in a broadcast and threatened to acquire his own drones to attack the police–thus using the same cutting edge arial weapons employed against him. Should that happen–a strong possibility–the level and sophistication of fighting will sharply escalate. Police will be at greater risk from gang drones than the gangs, because gangs know exactly where to find the police headquarters, depots, and vehicles. And gang drone strikes need not be limited to police. Police controlled districts and neighborhoods will be at risk as well, especially from Kamikaze type drone attacks almost impossible to detect or defend against.

Things are never static in gang vs government warfare. Gangs in Port-au-Prince are not just consolidating their power with weapons, but evolving to implement crude measures of governance, including safety of people under their control and access to food and medicine. At the same time, the gangs in Port-au-Prince have formed a loose alliance known as Viv Ansanm or “Live Together,” indicating a degree of political savvy and ability to move beyond gang-on-gang internal battles for turf dominance. Viv Ansanm has even begun recasting the image of gangs as a movement that stands for the “people” and Haitian nationalism against “foreign” influence. All in an attempt to gain some legitimacy and ultimately political recognition.

Bottom line: We should anticipate that Port-au-Prince gangs may well serve as a model for gangs in other Caribbean island nations and beyond. At the same time, we need to remember that the rest of Haiti outside the Port-au-Prince area is relatively safe. Gang power has its limits, even in Haiti. Next posting to detail gang tactics, expanding clout, and what can be done.

Painting by Malik Senefru

So, Turks & Caicos just had the experience of watching back-to-back Space X explosions 51 days apart sending down thousands of pieces of debris. Spectacular viewing, like watching fireworks, except for the potentially deadly fall out. And this was after the FAA suspended further Space X flights until the agency did a mishap investigation.

The FAA claimed to have identified the anomaly of the first flight that launched on January 16 and that corrective measures had been taken. The specific cause was not stated. The FAA also announced that stringent safety criteria had been applied to future launches to minimize risk to public safety. Clearly, something is not right and the danger to Caribbean people living under the launch trajectory continues to be real.

This time most of the debris rained down on the southern Bahama Islands, apparently not quite reaching the Turks & Caicos, thought the debris falling was quite visible. Airports in the region, including Miami, had to close until the skies were safe for flying. All of this again prompts the question, “Why must these islands continue to bear the risk of injury and death for a commercial experimental venture that they don’t benefit from?”

Space X is not ready for any more flights. Done! And if they want to continue, launch somewhere outside the Caribbean. Does anyone think Americans would be OK if Space X launched in a northerly direction over the US and then blew up over people below? The irony of Elon exploding rockets and exploding government services with debris all over the place is not lost on anyone.

Picture above taken looking west from north coast of Provo. Popular bar and grill, Da Conch Shack, lit up to the right of the photo.

On Thursday evening January 16 at 5:40 pm, I looked up at the pale twilight sky after the sun set but before darkness brought out the stars. A friend who tracks rocket launches from the US had told me to go out and look for a rocket that would be passing overhead. I had seen these before–a blurb in the sky trailed by a bright orange flare, almost like a comet but not as long. But on this evening I didn’t see anything. My friend said to be patient.

Suddenly, scores of bright stars followed by wavy white, yellow and orange streaks appeared over the horizon and filled the sky. I tapped the video button on my iPhone and pointed it overhead to track what at first looked like a massive fireworks display. I was too much in the zone and the moment to figure out what was happening. Only after the streaks passed over did it dawn on me that this must have been the rocket and that something had gone terribly wrong.

Terribly wrong indeed! The SpaceX rocket launched out of its South Texas Site had in fact blown up, and I was watching the burning debris fall back down to earth. It was at first a thrill to see, as it was for others who had witnessed this phenomenal explosion. But the excitement quickly turned to deep concern about the debris striking anyone or causing any damage.

Amazingly, no one was hit in Turks & Caicos. Surprising, because people found lots of rocket pieces all over the islands of Provo and South Caicos, especially on the beaches and in the sea. Reports of fallen debris came from Haiti, 130 miles to the south, as well. It didn’t take long for the Turks & Caicos government to call on the UK aviation authorities to find out what was going on from the FAA, which is the regulator of US airspace that recently included launches into space. The FAA quickly suspended Space X flights until an investigation is completed. It should be pointed out that, as the falling debris was spreading through the atmosphere, several airline flights were diverted from the zone of danger. And that included an Iberian Airways flight from Madrid crossing the Atlantic that had to call a May Day emergency landing in San Juan, Puerto Rico because it was running low on fuel. One can only imagine the disaster had a plane been hit and killing two or three hundred people.

So, what are to make of all this? Specifically, what right does SpaceX have to put our islands and this part of the Caribbean region at risk? These rockets are experimental and always stand a chance of blowing up in the sky or at the SpaceX launch site near the city of Brownsville and the border with Mexico. And when the rockets do explode, as they did on the early evening of January 16, the toxic fallout is immediately apparent– polluting a fragile environment and potentially injuring or killing people in the air or on the ground. Clearly, the launches in this direction need to be stopped.

Future postings will delve into the dangers posed by this rocket company that happens to be owned (50%) by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk. Unlike the rest of us here, he stands to benefit tremendously at our expense. Supporters of SpaceX rocket launches blather about balancing the grandiose quest (and ego trip) of space exploration with necessary risks. Which is another way of saying the collateral damage of you people in the way matters little. I beg to differ and challenge the entire premise.

Fixing the problem

In Part I defined the complex nature of statelessness. I would be remiss if I did not offer solutions. Here goes:

First, recognize the stateless who have lived here most or all of their lives. Giving them status with documents would be a huge first step in restoring a measure of hope. And it would reduce the incentive to join a gang that offers them money, power, self worth, and a sense of belonging, however horrendous the trade-off to commit crimes. Of course, identifying and granting numerous people legal status would be a massive and complicated undertaking. Determining just who deserves status and who does not will never be easy. And there are political implications and push back on the prospect of even more legal residents. But none of that should dissuade or deter us. Indeed, the previous Governor, Nigel Dakin, granted some ten undocumented youngsters the status of naturalized citizens. Commendable, but hardly a dent. That process needs to be scaled up by several orders of magnitude.

What is the alternative? The stateless are not going away. They live among us and have for a long time. Indeed, many of the children of better-off Belongers and expats have played soccer or basketball and even hung out with these now-young adults without legal status. Those of us on the privileged side of the divide have seen their faces and their smiles that allowed a glimpse of an ideal world in which differences disappeared. A fleeting moment of complete equality before the game ended and “they” returned to the shantytowns where the house is lit only by candles, has no running water, and everyone sleeps on bare floors. Meanwhile, the rest of us return to our first-world homes just a mile or two away, secure and cozy with the AC blasting.

Should these stateless youngsters now be condemned to perpetual poverty and dead-ends purely because their parents didn’t have or file the proper papers at the right time? Is it okay for the rest of us to turn away while our own children pursue their dreams of higher education, travel, a career, all uncomplicated by concerns of status and citizenship? There’s a profoundly moral issue here, as well as a practical one.

Second, ramp up social services and health care in the settlements. This is directly related to the statelessness. Right now social services are way understaffed and cannot reach all the people in need, particularly children who may be in unstable environments or in danger of being harmed physically, mentally or through exploitation. This will require training and hiring of large numbers of social service counselors and working closely with existing facilities that can provide a temporary home for the most vulnerable.

Regarding health care, none of the undocumented have national health insurance cards, nor can they afford medical treatment. Some medical professionals provide free or nearly free services, but their charity can only cover a fraction of the need. Therefore, clinics should be established in the settlements for people to visit and at least get basic care, including counseling for mental health. Also under the radar for this stateless group is the enormous psychological stress and sometimes lingering trauma. Visible social services and health care can alleviate suffering and restore well-being that makes possible the mental strength to escape poverty.

Third, expand vocational job training opportunities post-high school. Specifically, offer youngster a chance to be certified as mechanics, electricians, plumbers, air-conditioning repair, and builders, among other trades. It need not stop there. Classes in coding, AI, IT, medical tech, and accounting can also be added to the mix. There is high demand for people with these skills, so job placement should not be an issue. At the very least, it gives young people a vocation that can be applied immediately to earn money and possibly build a business.

Fourth, slow or stop altogether new resort development. Yes, heretical as it seems since TCI is almost entirely dependent on tourism for its well-being. But unfettered development, even if mostly high-end, precipitates TCI’s inequality. Development brings high prices for everything, particularly food and rent. The purchase of land or a finished home has become completely out of reach for most people and thus erases any opportunity for building even a modicum of wealth or security.

In short, rapid growth without measures mitigating the consequences keeps people poor, including many Turks Islanders. A job paying minimum wage of $8.00 an hour does not begin to cover costs, even for the most frugal. But the stateless cannot even aspire to those jobs. If they can get work, it’s on the down-low with no protections and for even less money.

Everyone on Provo, whether monied or not, clearly sees how mass development is severely stressing the infrastructure and causing the island to lose its luster. And while that is a serious concern, it tends to overshadow the compelling issue of the statelessness coupled with poverty fostered by too much development. Bringing to a halt to new resorts would allow the island to reset and refocus on how to include the left-behind members of society so they too can have a stake in the future.

Pivot to Social Investment

None of these recommendations is new or unique or revolutionary. In fact, there have been calls for these kinds of changes for some time in various forms. Of course, easier to advocate than to actually put into practice. A huge social investment in TCI’s most powerless will require a longterm commitment requiring many more regulatory officers, service providers, and teachers, and it will cost plenty.

Funding for such a massive venture could be done in two ways. First, by raising the current hotel tax 1% from 12% to 13%. Second, by increasing the stamp duty 1% from 10% to 11% for property sales with a value over $750,000. That additional money raised can be specifically earmarked for social transformation and clearly spelled out to all those who are charged the extra fee. I am confident that few tourists or investors would object to help reduce poverty in TCI.

Just as TCI has led the Caribbean in tourism development, the country can also lead the way in applying tourism revenue to lift up those who have fallen into the social abyss. This does not mean giving residency to all people who arrived illegally just because they are now here. But it does mean lending a big hand to the younger generation that has lived here most of their lives but missed out securing the rights and privileges that others have–again, through no fault of their own. In so doing, TCI could do right and make progress on the seemingly intractable challenge of putting an end to murderous gangs that blight the grace and allure of these magnificent islands.

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Gangs and Despair in the Turks & Caicos Islands

Gang violence continues to be a painful reality in TCI, especially for those residing in the less well-off settlements (villages) of Provo. At night, worried residents shut windows that used to be open to catch the breeze from the ocean and cool the house. But closed windows cannot mute the sound of gunshots that pop like fireworks. First one, then two, then a bunch in a row followed by the flurry of text messages speculating on whose body will be found the next morning. These are the people–Haitians, Dominicans, Jamaicans, Bahamians, as well as many Turks Islanders– who live on the other side of the glaring gulf between the astoundingly rich and the struggling poor. The ones who got left behind while hundreds of millions of dollars of resort investment poured in and created a stark and troubling parallel universe.

The vast majority of those living in the settlements, sometimes little more than a stone’s throw from the posh tourist hub of Grace Bay, want to better their lives, be good citizens, and abide by the law. But for too many, there is no ticket out. These are people with no documents to be here legally. They live in the shadows of a sprawling underclass but also in plain sight.

At the bottom of this social order, the most vulnerable of all, are the stateless. They are the ones who came to TCI as toddlers, some even born here. Many, maybe most of them, have completed high school. But, when they reach 18 years old, they cannot get a job, obtain a driver’s license, open a bank account, and certainly cannot qualify for a passport to travel. Moreover, without status they live with the dread they might be picked up and deported to a country they have never known. A perfect and heart wrenching profile for gang recruitment and the crux of the predicament facing TCI.

More than Police Work

Policies to stem gang violence center on bringing in more police resources. Police Commissioner, Edwin Martin and other senior government officials have called for more police vehicles, more equipment, more stations, more maritime assets, and more UK assistance to tackle the scourge of gangs along with the trafficking of drugs, people and guns. Commissioner Martin has also recommended a “Whole of Society” approach to combatting crime by urging citizens, businesses and government to unite.

One can hardly disagree with such comprehensive requests and uplifting ideals. All good and right, but, sadly, more cops on the beat will not be enough to eradicate entrenched criminals. And a robust intelligence network of citizens standing together shows no sign of happening anytime soon. Indeed, almost nobody in these communities talks to the police for fear of retaliation. So gangs continue to foment violence over turf battles, hold-ups, perceived disrespect, suspected snitching, or vengeance for the shooting of rival gang member. Law enforcement alone, however well-funded, cannot succeed in this environment.

What’s needed is a concerted commitment to treating the underlying social despair that fuels gang violence. Getting a handle on this requires a deeper strategy and a longterm investment aimed at the marginalized stateless who live on the fringes of society–the pool that gangs draw from and gives them power. A gargantuan and complex task to be sure. But that pool must dry up to check and ultimately crush gang violence. So, rather than just call for more police on the streets and greater unity, however well-intended, let’s take a hard look at how we got to this point– and what can be done about it.

Boomtown & Shantytown

Forty years ago, Provo had less than 1000 people. Since then, growth has accelerated to the point where the island has become a major high-end tourist destination. That trend has not slowed down. Today around 40,000 (estimates vary widely) people live in Provo–a nearly 4000% increase. In 2023 Provo alone saw more than a half million overnight tourists from abroad, a 22% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Currently, there are some 17 new resort projects planned or in the works to accommodate a projected 1.1 million visitors by 2032. All of this has brought in millions of dollars in revenue to TCI through property stamp duty, import duty, and the tax on hotel stays, restaurant meals, and recreational activities. On the surface, that kind of prosperity would appear to be positive and enviable, as it creates jobs as well as revenue.

But the development and population explosion also drew in large numbers of people, documented and undocumented, who did not always get a piece of the action. The poorest and most desperate arrived from Haiti, often crossing 130 miles of dangerous ocean in small, crowded boats run by ruthless human traffickers. Many others also came in search of jobs to escape poverty or to make a buck on a tropical island. Those who lost out added to an ever-expanding underclass filled with its own divisions, struggles, fears, prejudices, and anger. It sounds paradoxical, but the striking disparity in wealth and opportunity is typical of boomtown economies. Provo is no different in that sense.

As a result of the influx, the local settlements on Provo expanded with people who were not part of the economy and could never can be. A 2014 UN sponsored Poverty Assessment report in sheds a statistical light on the situation. According to the report, 8% of the TCI population had no formal residential status. They have either arrived illegally or their work permits have expired, or they were born into non-Belonger (non-Islander) households and have not acquired the nationality of their parents. Haitians made up two-thirds of this group, according to the UN report. Drawing on a 2013 US Labor Department study, the UN report estimated the number in this undocumented status to be 2000.

More than a decade later in 2024, it’s fair to surmise that the number of people without documentation has risen dramatically in synch with Provo’s expansion. One can, of course, make a strong argument that those who came here from somewhere else without proper documents, or had a work permit that expired but didn’t leave, took the risk. And in most cases they probably should not be accorded status for unlawful behavior. But what about the hundreds, if not thousands, who, through no fault of their own, never had any status to begin with? The ones who fell through the cracks and have nowhere to go.