As the gang alliance, Viv Ansanm, threatens the last remaining sections of Port-au-Prince still under government control, we need to ask: What will a complete takeover look like? From this Haiti observer’s perspective, we are likely to see criminal city-state emerge. What I have called a “gangocracy”—the rule by gangs. Here’s how it could go down.

—Gangs take over and destroy Digicel facility in Port-au-Prince. This disrupts communications for 3.7 million people. Natcom Mobile, the other major provider, might still function for 4 million people. But almost half the population would be affected. The sharply reduced service would not affect most gangs since they are connected with Starlink. 

—The remaining Interim Government of Haiti officials still in the city leave by helicopter and set up offices in Cap-Haitien, which has already become the de facto capital of Haiti. Indeed, government officials have been frequenting Cap-Haitien for months now (as well as cities in the south like Les Cay). Fortunately, the officials can use a helicopter operated by the Taiwanese that has been ferrying them back and forth from the capital. So everyone knows the route, even as shots are taken at the helicopter. 

—Morale of the National Haitian Police at various stations around Port-au-Prince will fall. They will question why they are the only ones left behind to fend for themselves. 

—As gangs tighten the noose around Port-au-Prince, they will lay siege to police stations and maybe attack them. The police may hold off for a while, but then, perhaps after a shoot-our, surrender with terms that could allow them to drive away freely and safely from the city with their families.    

—The Kenyan and other foreign troops will have no incentive to fight and leave after negotiating some deal for safe passage. A UN plane would be deployed to pick them up at the airport (opened for this short window) and fly them to the US or another Caribbean nation or even back to Kenya.

How Will Foreign Countries React?

The spectacle of complete gang dominance will be humiliating. People will be asking, how could a ragtag band of gangs (albeit well-armed) kick out police as well as professional soldiers (also well-armed)? There will be a lot of fretting among foreign government officials about what to do next. One option being discussed is having the Organization of American States (OAS) put together a foreign military mission to try to confront and dislodge the gangs from Port-au-Prince. The reason to go through OAS is to avoid calling for a vote in the UN for more forces, which would likely be vetoed by Russia and China. Plus, OAS is not set up for armed force deployment. So this to won’t materialize. 

In short, little appetite for another foreign intervention, which will leave the gangs in power.

Gangocracy Governance?

The international inaction will give the gangs a clear victory and put them in control of the capital. But the gangs have not put forth a plan for governing. In fact, it seems they have little interest in setting up a government. 

Rather, they would prefer to exert power and influence through intimidation, while also using the opportunity to amass more money and arms to remain in control. They will want everyone to know that they call the shots. In other words, it’s a giant ego trip. In fact, the leader the gang “5 Segon,” Johnson Andre, aka “Izo,” fancied himself as a rap star. He often posted video on TikTok until his account was shut down. Other gang leaders enjoy showing off their cash on TikTok. 

The lack of ambition beyond wealth and personal power could lead to an opulent lifestyle where gang leaders and their lieutenants take advantage of abandoned villas in and around Port-au-Prince. The gangs would likely play to the common people by branding themselves as the ones who defeated the foreign invaders and liberated the city. They might allow back some foreign medical teams to restart clinics and aid agencies to ship in food, as hunger is becoming acute with the prospect of famine. Down the road, gangs may even seek some recognition and legitimacy as a power to be reckoned with. But only if they can keep the loose alliance going.

Complete gang take-over also opens the door to narco-traffickers seeking to expand using a safe base. In that sense, control of the capital can further enhance the wealth of gang leaders and entrench their power. At that point, the city-state gangocracy will be complete and serve as an entity that defies the rules of diplomacy and the concept of the nation-state.

Of course, there is also the possibility that the alliance will collapse and the gangs fight among themselves over turf, especially if there is not common enemy. That would, of course, only deepen the suffering of the people left behind in Port-au-Prince. The disease and famine triggered by a war among the gangs could well be catastrophic with little relief from aid agencies.